Worthing
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 37 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 5 of 13 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 21Proj: 6-15
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 25+25
Green
Now: 2Proj: 20
Other/Ind
Now: 3Proj: 0-3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
32.1%
Labour
21.0%
Conservative
16.3%
Green
12.3%
Lib Dem
10.8%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest