Scottish Parliament Forecast
SNP projected to remain largest party with ~52 seats (range 35–64). No single-party majority is likely (65 seats needed of 129), but an SNP+Green majority is projected in 55% of simulations.
Central estimate — 129 seats
Where each party gets its seats
Scotland elects 73 MSPs via first-past-the-post in constituencies (solid bars), plus 56 via D'Hondt proportional list seats in 8 regions (lighter bars). The list allocation compensates for FPTP disproportionality. Notice how SNP dominates constituencies but wins almost zero list seats, while Reform wins zero constituencies but ~21 list seats from its broader geographic spread.
Projected winners by region
Central and Lothians West
9 seatsEdinburgh and Lothians East
9 seatsGlasgow
8 seatsWest Scotland
10 seatsMid Scotland and Fife
9 seatsNorth East Scotland
10 seatsHighlands and Islands
8 seatsSouth Scotland
10 seatsConstituency vote polls
Holyrood has two ballots; we show the constituency (FPTP) ballot. Regional list polls are sparse and synthesised from constituency shares where needed.
MethodologyHow this forecast is built
scottish-v1-uns-mc5000
How this forecast is built
Electoral system
The Scottish Parliament uses the Additional Member System (AMS): 73 MSPs are elected by first-past-the-post in constituencies, and 56 more via D'Hondt closed-list PR across 8 regions (7 per region). D'Hondt compensates for FPTP disproportionality — a party that sweeps the constituencies wins almost no list seats. Majority = 65 seats.
Poll aggregation
Polls are weighted by three factors combined multiplicatively: recency(exponential decay with a 10-day half-life, matching our GE model’s snapshot mode); sample size(square-root-of-n, clipped to a 0.5–2.0 range); and pollster accuracy (equal weights for now — no devolved-specific pollster accuracy database exists yet).
Projection method
The model starts from notional 2021 results on 2026 boundaries (calculated by Ballot Box Scotland), applies uniform national swing from current Scottish Parliament polling, and runs D'Hondt allocation for each region. 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations produce probability distributions and confidence intervals.
GE cross-reference weight is set to zero. The Westminster GE model projects SNP at ~12% nationally (across all GB), which would drag down the Holyrood model's 35% Scottish baseline. Disabling cross-reference improved SNP constituency projections.
Candidacy data (v3). Updated with Democracy Club data following nominations closing 1 April 2026. Alba Party is not standing anywhere. Greens contest only 6 of 73 constituencies but have full regional lists. Reform UK is contesting all 73 constituencies. Where a party is not standing, their vote share is redistributed by ideological proximity.
Regional vote variation
Regional list vote shares are not applied uniformly across Scotland's 8 regions. Each region's projected share is modulated by the ratio of its 2021 constituency baseline to the Scotland-wide average, dampened at 70%. This produces realistic variation: Conservatives are strongest in South Scotland and North East Scotland; Lib Dems peak in Highlands and Islands; Greens are concentrated in Glasgow and Edinburgh; Labour dominates Central Scotland and Glasgow.
This regional variation is critical for D'Hondt list allocation. The same national vote share produces very different list seat distributions depending on regional concentration.
Comparison with MRP forecasts
Two MRP polls have been published: YouGov (10 April, n=4,000) projects SNP 67 with P(majority)=89%. Electoral Calculus (7 April, n=4,000) also projects SNP 67.
Our model projects SNP 61 (CI: 51–69) with P(majority)=24%. The gap is almost entirely in constituency seats — we give SNP 60 of 73 vs YouGov's 66. This reflects a known UNS limitation: MRP can model individual constituency dynamics that may cause marginal seats to flip differently from the uniform pattern.
On remaining parties, our projections sit credibly between the two MRPs: Reform 18 (YouGov 20, EC 14), Labour 17 (YouGov 15, EC 17), Greens 11 (YouGov 11, EC 14), Conservatives 10 (YouGov 7). SNP + Green pro-independence majority is projected at 91% probability.
Monte Carlo
5,000 simulations. Each draws a national polling-error shock (2pp SD), per-party constituency-vote shocks, correlated regional-vote shocks (ρ=0.9), and per-seat local noise (3pp marginals / 1.5pp safe seats). FPTP is resolved in each constituency, then D'Hondt allocates 7 list seats per region using region-specific vote shares and the constituency wins as the already-held count.
Data sources
- Scottish Parliament polls — Wikipedia polling tables, scraped every 6 hours (131 constituency + 131 regional).
- Notional 2021 constituency baselines — Ballot Box Scotland on 2026 boundaries.
- Candidate data — Democracy Club (all 73 constituencies confirmed, nominations closed 1 April).
- External benchmarks — YouGov MRP (10 April, n=4,000), Electoral Calculus MRP (7 April, n=4,000).
Uncertainty note
The central question is whether the SNP can replicate their 2021 constituency dominance (64 of 73 seats) despite a ~7-point decline in constituency vote share. MRP models project 66-67 SNP constituency seats; our UNS model is more cautious at 61. The truth depends on how efficiently SNP support is distributed and whether opposition tactical voting materialises.