readingsignal

If the UK Election Were Held Today

Updated 2 hours ago·Con+8vs yesterday

Projected seats

simulation mean · 90% range
Lab
302
−109 vs 2024
192403
Reform
120
+115 vs 2024
22255
Con
96
−25 vs 2024
25184
Lib Dem
72
0 vs 2024
5286
SNP
14
+5 vs 2024
038
Ind
11
+5 vs 2024
614
Green
6
+2 vs 2024
410

Labour is likely the largest party (89%). A hung parliament is the most likely result (61%).

Lab 302
Reform 120
Con 96
Lib Dem 72
326 majority

Everything above answers one question: if the election were held today. But it won't be. What the actual election might return — the ways the country could move between now and polling day, each weighed and on the record — lives on its own page.

The election forecast →
Also on this siteFrance 2027By-electionsTrack record

632 Constituencies

England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included as they have a separate party system.

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Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing
Polling applied with regional differentials
Lab 462
Reform 4
Con 106
Lib Dem 50
Green 4
Step 2Vote source model
Differential switching rates by constituency type
Lab 294
Reform 128
Con 94
Lib Dem 76
Green 6
SNP 21
Lab -168Reform +124Con -12Lib Dem +26Green +2SNP +21
Step 3Turnout adjustment
Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount
Lab 317
Reform 27
Con 180
Lib Dem 72
Green 5
SNP 19
Lab +23Reform -101Con +86Lib Dem -4Green -1SNP -2
Step 4Tactical voting
Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate
Lab 315
Reform 102
Con 93
Lib Dem 76
Green 5
SNP 16
Lab -2Reform +75Con -87Lib Dem +4SNP -3

Polling Tracker

2049polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Regional breakdown

Bars are normalised to share within each region. Click a row to filter the constituency cube to that region.

South East· 91
29
11
28
21
London· 75
53
6
11
North West· 73
48
12
East of England· 61
25
13
7
15
South West· 58
22
22
11
West Midlands· 57
22
19
9
Scotland· 57
29
6
6
16
Yorkshire & Humber· 54
24
19
6
East Midlands· 47
23
15
8
Wales· 32
23
5
North East· 27
17
8
2

Latest Polls

2049 polls tracked
Date
Pollster
N
Lab
Ref
Con
LD
Grn
12 Oct
More in Common
2101
28
21
24
11
7
12 Oct
YouGov
2393
24
21
23
12
11
11 Oct
Freshwater Strategy
1235
29
23
22
10
9
9 Oct
Opinium
2050
29
23
20
9
9
7 Oct
Find Out Now
2590
25
23
20
9
11

Model updates

15 Oct, 04:39
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2049 polls processed.
14 Oct, 21:42
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2049 polls processed.
14 Oct, 17:10
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2049 polls processed.
14 Oct, 15:27
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2049 polls processed.
14 Oct, 11:53
v2.7-structure-reconciled — 2047 polls processed.