UK Election Forecaster

The Forecast

Lab

332(-79)241–395

Reform

119(+114)25–240

Lib Dem

80(+8)77–82

Con

70(-51)29–116

SNP

12(+3)7–16

Green

8(+4)5–14

Ind

4(-2)3–5

Lab majority69.4%

Hung parliament30.6%

Reform largest4.4%

Model v2.1-full-pipeline · 13 Apr 2026, 19:39Based on 504 polls

69%

Labour majority

31%

Hung parliament

Reform largest

Updated 13 Apr, 19:39v2.1-full-pipeline504 polls

Lab 332

Reform 119

Lib Dem 80

Con 70

326 majority

Change from 2024

Projected seats vs 2024 General Election result. Ghosted outline = 2024 actual.

Lab

332(-79)

2024: 411

Reform

119(+114)

2024: 5

Lib Dem

80(+8)

2024: 72

Con

70(-51)

2024: 121

SNP

12(+3)

2024: 9

Green

8(+4)

2024: 4

Ind

4(-2)

2024: 6

Polls— 504 polls ingested

Prediction marketscoming soon

Fundamentalscoming soon

Leader approvalcoming soon

Scenario Explorer

The election outcome depends on two questions polling cannot answer: do Reform and Green voters actually turn out, and do their opponents coordinate? Each quadrant shows a different possible election.

Low tactical voting

Fragmented opposition

High tactical voting

Coordinated opposition

High turnout

Mobilisation

Reform dominant

Reform289

Lab203

Lib Dem75

Contested

Lab280

Reform180

Lib Dem78

Low turnout

Established voters

Messy hung parliament

Lab350

Con82

Reform80

Labour holds

Lab390

Con85

Lib Dem80

650 Constituencies

Lab 357Reform 102Lib Dem 80Con 65SNP 10Green 6Plaid 4Ind 4WPB 3Spk 1

Each square = 1 constituency. Opacity = model confidence.

Model Waterfall

How each model layer transforms the raw projection. Radical transparency — see exactly what drives the forecast.

Step 1Regional swing

Polling applied with regional differentials

Lab 385

Reform 27

Con 149

Lib Dem 60

Green 4

Step 2Vote source model

Differential switching rates by constituency type

Lab 253

Reform 248

Con 19

Lib Dem 75

Green 12

SNP 13

Lab -132Reform +221Con -130Lib Dem +15Green +8SNP +13

Step 3Turnout adjustment

Non-traditional voter bases get turnout discount

Lab 317

Reform 135

Con 71

Lib Dem 79

Green 6

SNP 11

Lab +64Reform -113Con +52Lib Dem +4Green -6SNP -2

Step 4Tactical voting

Multi-directional squeeze at 18% base rate

Lab 357

Reform 102

Con 65

Lib Dem 80

Green 6

SNP 10

Lab +40Reform -33Con -6Lib Dem +1SNP -1

Polling Tracker

504polls · Individual polls as dots, trend line as moving average

Local Elections — May 7

New: Three scenarios

Explore scenarios →

140

councils changing control

avg Reform vote share

142English councils · Mild / Central / Severe scenarios · Interactive sliders

Regional Breakdown

South East

91 seats

Lab34Lib Dem29Reform14

London

75 seats

Lab54Con12Lib Dem6

North West

73 seats

Lab54Reform10Lib Dem3

East of England

61 seats

Lab26Reform21Lib Dem7

South West

58 seats

Lab26Lib Dem24Reform5

Scotland

57 seats

Lab35SNP10Con6

West Midlands

57 seats

Lab26Reform18Con7

Yorkshire and The Humber

54 seats

Lab31Reform11Con8

East Midlands

47 seats

Lab23Reform18Con6

Wales

32 seats

Lab26Plaid4Lib Dem1

North East

27 seats

Lab22Reform3Con2

Latest Polls

504 polls tracked

30 MarMore in Common (MRP)

Ref 28Lab 20Con 21LD 13

8 AprFind Out Now

Ref 25Lab 16Con 17LD 11

7 AprMore in Common

Ref 30Lab 20Con 19LD 12

7 AprYouGov

Ref 24Lab 16Con 19LD 13

1 AprGood Growth Foundation

Ref 27Lab 20Con 19LD 12