France — présidentielle 2027

The specification is public before the forecast exists

First forecast at V0, late November 2026. This section pre-registers the model before it produces a number.

Most forecasts arrive as a number and explain themselves afterwards. This one arrives the other way round: the model is written down, frozen, and published first, and the number follows in late November. Everything below is the commitment, not the result.

What is not yet known

• ·Who is on the ballot. The candidate field is unsettled until the Conseil constitutionnel publishes the official list, expected around 15 March 2027. The universe below is a working one and is replaced wholesale on that day.
• ·What the model says. No forecast exists until V0, expected late November 2026. No probability, interval or projection appears anywhere on this section before then.
• ·Whether the model is any good. The first scored events are 18 April and 2 May 2027. Until then there is nothing to judge it by, and this section does not ask to be judged.

What is here now

• Methodology — The frozen specification, its tag and hash, and every dated amendment since.
• Branches — The candidate-field scenarios the model carries, their weights where ruled and their rules where not.
• Candidates — The working universe, with each status as the specification records it.
• Ledger — What will be scored, and how, with the score columns empty.

Vintage schedule

Each vintage is a dated model run. V1 was withdrawn by amendment A3 on 24 August 2026; it is listed rather than removed, because a schedule that quietly drops an entry reads as an oversight and one that names the withdrawal reads as a decision.