Candidate-field branches
The model does not assume one field. It carries named scenarios, each mapped to the polling configurations that measure it, and samples across them. Where a weight has been ruled it is shown; where it has not, the rule that will set it is shown instead — because a rule stated in advance is harder to bend than a number chosen later.
| Branch | Alternative | Weight | Rule / trigger | Ratified by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-RN | Le Pen (default) | 0.96 | freeze | |
| Bardella substitution | 0.04 | freeze | ||
| B-LEFT | (a) Mélenchon + Glucksmann + primary winner + Roussel | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at the 11 Oct 2026 primary | freeze |
| (b) PS joins primary → single non-LFI left candidate | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at the 11 Oct 2026 primary | freeze | |
| (c) Hollande runs | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at the 11 Oct 2026 primary | freeze | |
| (d) combinations | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at the 11 Oct 2026 primary | freeze | |
| B-CTR | Philippe only | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at declarations and parrainages | freeze |
| Philippe + Attal | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at declarations and parrainages | freeze | |
| Attal only | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at declarations and parrainages | freeze | |
| B-RGT | Retailleau present | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at parrainages | freeze |
| Zemmour present | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at parrainages | freeze | |
| DA present | rule, not a number | Rule, not numbers: combination table §4. Resets by addendum at parrainages | freeze | |
| B-ENV | Confirmation before R1 | rule, not a number | Zero-mean, direction-agnostic (P5) | freeze |
| Quash before R1 | rule, not a number | Zero-mean, direction-agnostic (P5) | freeze | |
| After R2 | rule, not a number | Zero-mean, direction-agnostic (P5) | freeze | |
| R | Unnamed residual | 0.10 | freeze |