Calibration ledger
No track record yet. First scored events: 18 April and 2 May 2027.
What will be scored, how it will be scored, and when — published now, with every score column empty. Pre-registering the scoring rule is the part that costs something: it removes the option of deciding after the fact which quantities counted.
| Event class | Quantity | Method | Scored on | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branch realisations | B-RN, B-LEFT, B-CTR, B-RGT | Recorded, not scored | 2027-03-15 | — empty until the scoring date |
| Pairing | P_pair, top five pairings by mass at V-R1 | Brier | 2027-04-18 | — empty until the scoring date |
| Qualification | P_qual(c), every listed candidate | Brier | 2027-04-18 | — empty until the scoring date |
| R1 shares | 80% and 95% intervals, every candidate with forecast mean ≥3% | Interval coverage | 2027-04-18 | — empty until the scoring date |
| R2 non-valid | 80% interval | Interval coverage | 2027-05-02 | — empty until the scoring date |
| R2 share | 80% and 95% intervals, winner's share | Interval coverage | 2027-05-02 | — empty until the scoring date |
| Winner | P_win(c), every listed candidate | Brier | 2027-05-02 | — empty until the scoring date |
Coverage means the published interval either contained the outcome or did not. Brier scores a probability against what happened. Recorded means the item is logged as an input and never scored, because it is a measurement rather than a forecast.