Winchester
Shire District· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 45 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrat→Reform
Control changes from Liberal Democrat to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 15 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 27+27
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.2%
Labour
18.3%
Lib Dem
16.1%
Conservative
15.1%
Green
11.7%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge