West Lancashire
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 45 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 7 of 15 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 23Proj: 10-13
Conservative
Now: 14Proj: 1-13
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 34+34
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 8Proj: 0-8
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.9%
Labour
24.6%
Green
13.6%
Conservative
13.6%
Lib Dem
4.9%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge