Welwyn Hatfield
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 48 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (6/16 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 20Proj: 8-12
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 3-8
Lib Dem
Now: 16Proj: 3-13
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 29+29
Green
Now: 0Proj: 5+5
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.9%
Labour
20.2%
Conservative
17.5%
Green
12.0%
Lib Dem
10.9%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge