Watford
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 36 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrats→NOC
Liberal Democrat projected to hold with 4 of 12 seats. Labour maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 6Proj: 60
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Lib Dem
Now: 30Proj: 6-24
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 17+17
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
27.0%
Labour
18.3%
Lib Dem
18.3%
Conservative
15.5%
Green
13.3%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest