Trafford
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 63 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 7 of 21 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 43Proj: 9-34
Conservative
Now: 8Proj: 5-3
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 5-1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 37+37
Green
Now: 6Proj: 7+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
30.6%
Labour
18.2%
Green
16.5%
Conservative
16.2%
Lib Dem
11.0%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge