Thurrock
Unitary Authority· East of England· All seats up· 49 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Reform projected to take control from Labour. Reform wins 26 of 49 contested seats as vote shares shift decisively.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 26Proj: 7-19
Conservative
Now: 12Proj: 1-11
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 3Proj: 38+35
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 8Proj: 3-5
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
38.2%
Labour
24.8%
Green
14.3%
Conservative
14.0%
Lib Dem
1.1%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge