Tamworth
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 30 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 10 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 18Proj: 2-16
Conservative
Now: 6Proj: 0-6
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 26+26
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 6Proj: 0-6
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
40.3%
Labour
23.0%
Conservative
16.9%
Green
11.3%
Lib Dem
1.0%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge