Swindon
Unitary Authority· South West· All seats up· 57 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 23 of 57 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 39Proj: 10-29
Conservative
Now: 16Proj: 2-14
Lib Dem
Now: 1Proj: 3+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 38+38
Green
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.5%
Labour
22.9%
Conservative
15.7%
Green
10.9%
Lib Dem
9.4%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge