Sutton
London Borough· London· All seats up· 54 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrats→NOC
Control changes from Liberal Democrat to no overall control. Conservative projected as largest party with 25 of 54 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 2Proj: 20
Conservative
Now: 21Proj: 18-3
Lib Dem
Now: 28Proj: 19-9
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 4Proj: 3-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Lib Dem
24.3%
Conservative
23.2%
Reform
21.6%
Green
11.8%
Labour
11.4%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest