Sunderland
Metropolitan Borough· North East· All seats up· 75 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Reform projected to become largest party with 49 of 75 seats in this northern Labour heartland. Labour drops from 62 seats to 13 as working-class voters switch.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 52Proj: 3-49
Conservative
Now: 10Proj: 1-9
Lib Dem
Now: 12Proj: 2-10
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 65+65
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 4+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
39.9%
Labour
18.8%
Conservative
11.9%
Green
11.6%
Lib Dem
10.6%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge