Stockport
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 63 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Lib Dem projected as largest party (7/21 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 21Proj: 6-15
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Lib Dem
Now: 30Proj: 18-12
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 31+31
Green
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Other/Ind
Now: 8Proj: 2-6
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
30.1%
Lib Dem
22.6%
Labour
14.0%
Conservative
13.3%
Green
12.4%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge