Stevenage
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 39 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 5 of 13 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 31Proj: 7-24
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 10
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 2-4
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 26+26
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 3+2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.8%
Labour
22.7%
Conservative
14.5%
Lib Dem
10.8%
Green
10.6%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest