St Helens
Metropolitan Borough· North West· All seats up· 48 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 48 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 28Proj: 13-15
Conservative
Now: 2Proj: 3+1
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 1-2
Reform
Now: 2Proj: 29+27
Green
Now: 6Proj: 2-4
Other/Ind
Now: 7Proj: 0-7
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
38.2%
Labour
26.8%
Green
13.7%
Conservative
11.0%
Lib Dem
2.6%
Ind/Other
7.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge