Solihull

Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· All seats up· 51 total seats

Control:Conservative→Reform

Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 21 of 51 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.

Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)

Labour

Now: 1Proj: 10

Conservative

Now: 31Proj: 6-25

Lib Dem

Now: 8Proj: 5-3

Reform

Now: 0Proj: 33+33

Green

Now: 9Proj: 3-6

Other/Ind

Now: 2Proj: 3+1

Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.

Projected Vote Shares

Reform

33.9%

Conservative

19.3%

Labour

14.1%

Lib Dem

13.6%

Green

11.9%

Ind/Other

7.2%

Control Probabilities

Labour

Conservative

Reform

Lib Dem

Green

NOC

From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.

What to watch

Reform surge

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