Sefton
Metropolitan Borough· North West· All seats up· 66 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 28 of 66 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 50Proj: 11-39
Conservative
Now: 4Proj: 2-2
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 3-6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 45+45
Green
Now: 1Proj: 5+4
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 0-2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.9%
Labour
22.5%
Green
12.6%
Conservative
12.5%
Lib Dem
10.9%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge