Sandwell
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· All seats up· 72 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Black Country metro where Reform (38) challenges Labour (21) control. This working-class stronghold mirrors the pattern across northern and midlands metros.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 65Proj: 7-58
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 2-3
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 56+56
Green
Now: 1Proj: 10
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 6+5
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
36.2%
Labour
21.1%
Green
15.2%
Conservative
14.5%
Lib Dem
5.2%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge