Redditch
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 27 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 6 of 9 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 19Proj: 1-18
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 1-4
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 23+23
Green
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 0-2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
36.2%
Conservative
18.0%
Labour
17.3%
Green
10.8%
Lib Dem
10.4%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge