Preston
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 48 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 7 of 16 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 28Proj: 6-22
Conservative
Now: 6Proj: 3-3
Lib Dem
Now: 13Proj: 4-9
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 34+34
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.7%
Labour
17.9%
Green
14.7%
Lib Dem
13.5%
Conservative
13.3%
Ind/Other
9.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge