Pendle
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 33 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (5/10 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 1-8
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 28+27
Green
Now: 0Proj: 00
Other/Ind
Now: 12Proj: 0-12
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.7%
Conservative
18.8%
Labour
17.7%
Lib Dem
11.0%
Green
8.9%
Ind/Other
7.8%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest