Oxford
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 48 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Remains no overall control. Lib Dem projected as largest party (8/24 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 21Proj: 8-13
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 15+6
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Green
Now: 8Proj: 10+2
Other/Ind
Now: 10Proj: 2-8
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Lib Dem
23.5%
Reform
20.8%
Labour
17.6%
Green
17.1%
Conservative
13.1%
Ind/Other
7.9%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest