Oldham
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (10/20 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 27Proj: 4-23
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 2-3
Lib Dem
Now: 9Proj: 4-5
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 44+44
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 19Proj: 4-15
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
36.3%
Labour
17.6%
Conservative
13.3%
Lib Dem
12.4%
Green
11.8%
Ind/Other
8.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge