Nuneaton and Bedworth
Shire District· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 38 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (12/19 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 19Proj: 4-15
Conservative
Now: 17Proj: 1-16
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 32+32
Green
Now: 2Proj: 20
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
39.0%
Labour
21.4%
Conservative
17.1%
Green
13.5%
Lib Dem
1.6%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge