North East Lincolnshire
Unitary Authority· Yorkshire and The Humber· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (10/16 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 15Proj: 1-14
Conservative
Now: 18Proj: 1-17
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 2-1
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 34+33
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 5Proj: 1-4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
39.9%
Labour
18.1%
Conservative
15.2%
Green
10.1%
Lib Dem
9.5%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge