Newcastle upon Tyne
Metropolitan Borough· North East· All seats up· 78 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (36/78 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 38Proj: 7-31
Conservative
Now: 1Proj: 10
Lib Dem
Now: 22Proj: 5-17
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 54+54
Green
Now: 2Proj: 8+6
Other/Ind
Now: 15Proj: 3-12
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.4%
Labour
18.3%
Green
17.4%
Lib Dem
12.0%
Conservative
11.3%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge