Knowsley
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 45 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 7 of 15 seats. Labour maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 31Proj: 10-21
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 0-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 27+27
Green
Now: 7Proj: 5-2
Other/Ind
Now: 4Proj: 1-3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
36.1%
Labour
27.7%
Green
17.4%
Conservative
10.3%
Lib Dem
0.8%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest