Isle of Wight
Unitary Authority· All seats up· 39 total seats
Control:NOC→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (15/39 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 20+20
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.3%
Labour
24.1%
Conservative
15.8%
Green
12.4%
Lib Dem
6.4%
Ind/Other
8.0%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge