Ipswich
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 48 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 6 of 16 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 38Proj: 10-28
Conservative
Now: 7Proj: 3-4
Lib Dem
Now: 3Proj: 2-1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 30+30
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
30.8%
Labour
21.7%
Conservative
16.1%
Green
16.1%
Lib Dem
7.9%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge