Hyndburn
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 35 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Control changes from Labour to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 11 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 21Proj: 5-16
Conservative
Now: 12Proj: 1-11
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 28+28
Green
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 10
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
36.2%
Labour
23.4%
Conservative
17.8%
Green
15.2%
Lib Dem
0.0%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge