Havering
London Borough· London· All seats up· 54 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Control changes from Independent to no overall control. Conservative projected as largest party with 23 of 54 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 8Proj: 3-5
Conservative
Now: 17Proj: 170
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 22+22
Green
Now: 0Proj: 9+9
Other/Ind
Now: 30Proj: 0-30
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
27.5%
Conservative
24.5%
Green
15.8%
Labour
14.8%
Lib Dem
10.1%
Ind/Other
7.2%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge