Hastings
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 32 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (6/16 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 9Proj: 7-2
Conservative
Now: 5Proj: 1-4
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 20+20
Green
Now: 12Proj: 4-8
Other/Ind
Now: 6Proj: 0-6
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.9%
Labour
24.3%
Green
18.5%
Conservative
14.3%
Lib Dem
3.4%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge