Gosport
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 28 total seats
Control:Liberal Democrats→Reform
Control changes from Liberal Democrat to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 6 of 14 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 2Proj: 3+1
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 3-8
Lib Dem
Now: 15Proj: 1-14
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 19+19
Green
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
33.2%
Conservative
19.9%
Labour
17.0%
Green
11.9%
Lib Dem
10.5%
Ind/Other
7.5%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge