Fareham
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 32 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Control changes from Conservative to no overall control. Reform projected as largest party with 8 of 16 seats, but multi-party fragmentation prevents a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Conservative
Now: 24Proj: 2-22
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 3-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 22+22
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 2+1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
32.6%
Conservative
17.8%
Labour
16.0%
Lib Dem
16.0%
Green
10.3%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge