Exeter
Shire District· South West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 39 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Labour projected to hold with 5 of 13 seats. Labour maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 22Proj: 9-13
Conservative
Now: 3Proj: 2-1
Lib Dem
Now: 4Proj: 5+1
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 17+16
Green
Now: 7Proj: 70
Other/Ind
Now: 2Proj: 0-2
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
27.2%
Labour
21.3%
Green
17.7%
Lib Dem
14.0%
Conservative
12.2%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest