Dudley
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 72 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (16/25 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 25Proj: 3-22
Conservative
Now: 35Proj: 3-32
Lib Dem
Now: 5Proj: 2-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 58+58
Green
Now: 0Proj: 6+6
Other/Ind
Now: 7Proj: 0-7
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
37.2%
Conservative
17.4%
Labour
16.6%
Green
11.0%
Lib Dem
10.4%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge