Crawley
Shire District· South East· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 36 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Local bellwether. Reform projected at 5 of 12 contested seats, challenging Labour (4) in this southern new town.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 25Proj: 5-20
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 24+24
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
32.5%
Labour
20.7%
Conservative
16.9%
Green
14.2%
Lib Dem
8.1%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest