Colchester
Shire District· East of England· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 51 total seats
Control:Conservative→NOC
Remains no overall control. Labour projected as largest party (6/17 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 14Proj: 11-3
Conservative
Now: 19Proj: 4-15
Lib Dem
Now: 14Proj: 7-7
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 25+25
Green
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Other/Ind
Now: 1Proj: 0-1
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
28.9%
Labour
19.8%
Lib Dem
16.0%
Conservative
14.6%
Green
13.3%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest