Chorley
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 42 total seats
Control:Labour→NOC
Labour projected to hold with 4 of 14 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 38Proj: 6-32
Conservative
Now: 3Proj: 1-2
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 20+19
Green
Now: 0Proj: 12+12
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
27.3%
Green
24.2%
Labour
18.9%
Conservative
13.3%
Lib Dem
6.0%
Ind/Other
10.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest