Calderdale
Metropolitan Borough· Yorkshire and The Humber· All seats up· 54 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Reform projected to take control from NOC. Reform wins 29 of 54 contested seats as vote shares shift decisively.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 27Proj: 3-24
Conservative
Now: 11Proj: 2-9
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 3-3
Reform
Now: 1Proj: 43+42
Green
Now: 3Proj: 4+1
Other/Ind
Now: 3Proj: 0-3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
34.5%
Labour
16.1%
Green
15.8%
Conservative
15.7%
Lib Dem
10.6%
Ind/Other
7.4%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge