Bury
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 51 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Labour projected to hold with 7 of 17 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 32Proj: 6-26
Conservative
Now: 10Proj: 3-7
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 00
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 37+37
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 9Proj: 3-6
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.1%
Labour
21.5%
Conservative
17.6%
Green
17.5%
Lib Dem
0.6%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge