Burnley
Shire District· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 45 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (5/15 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 14Proj: 9-5
Conservative
Now: 8Proj: 2-6
Lib Dem
Now: 7Proj: 4-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 26+26
Green
Now: 5Proj: 1-4
Other/Ind
Now: 11Proj: 3-8
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
34.9%
Labour
22.3%
Conservative
14.3%
Lib Dem
11.8%
Green
9.1%
Ind/Other
7.6%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest