Broxbourne
Shire District· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 30 total seats
Control:Conservative→Reform
Conservative projected to hold with 4 of 10 seats. Reform maintains a comfortable margin despite vote share shifts.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 4+4
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 19+19
Green
Now: 0Proj: 1+1
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.4%
Labour
19.4%
Conservative
15.2%
Green
13.5%
Lib Dem
12.8%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Control contest