Bolton
Metropolitan Borough· North West· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 60 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (11/20 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 26Proj: 2-24
Conservative
Now: 15Proj: 2-13
Lib Dem
Now: 6Proj: 4-2
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 45+45
Green
Now: 0Proj: 7+7
Other/Ind
Now: 13Proj: 0-13
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
35.8%
Labour
16.1%
Green
15.9%
Conservative
14.7%
Lib Dem
10.2%
Ind/Other
7.3%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge