Birmingham
Metropolitan Borough· West Midlands· All seats up· 101 total seats
Control:Labour→Reform
Largest metropolitan council. Labour (25), Reform (42), and Conservatives (14) in a three-way contest across 101 seats. No party projected to win a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 62Proj: 10-52
Conservative
Now: 21Proj: 6-15
Lib Dem
Now: 12Proj: 9-3
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 68+68
Green
Now: 2Proj: 8+6
Other/Ind
Now: 4Proj: 0-4
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.9%
Labour
18.4%
Green
16.6%
Conservative
13.5%
Lib Dem
11.6%
Ind/Other
8.1%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge