Basingstoke and Deane
Shire District· By-thirds (1/3 contested)· 54 total seats
Control:NOC→Reform
Remains no overall control. Reform projected as largest party (7/18 seats) but no party reaches a majority.
Seat Projection (Current vs Projected)
Labour
Now: 0Proj: 10+10
Conservative
Now: 0Proj: 2+2
Lib Dem
Now: 0Proj: 8+8
Reform
Now: 0Proj: 31+31
Green
Now: 0Proj: 3+3
Other/Ind
Now: 0Proj: 00
Faded bar = current seats. Solid bar = projected. Dashed line = majority threshold. For by-thirds councils, projection covers the 1/3 of seats contested in 2026 overlaid on the existing 2/3.
Projected Vote Shares
Reform
31.5%
Labour
19.9%
Lib Dem
17.3%
Conservative
15.3%
Green
8.4%
Ind/Other
7.7%
Control Probabilities
Labour
0%
Conservative
0%
Reform
0%
Lib Dem
0%
Green
0%
NOC
0%
From 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Confidence: medium.
What to watch
Reform surge